NFL 2026 · a ratings desk, not a fan page
Who’s better, and by how much.
We rate every NFL team against a league-average club. Then we turn that into a predicted gap for each game and compare it to the sportsbook. If we disagree by about a field goal, we look at a bet. If not, we skip. No favorite teams.
How to read this
- Teams — plus is better than average. Minus is worse. Tap a club to see why.
- Games — tap a matchup. Our line is the gap we expect. Street is the sportsbook.
- Copper means we disagree by about a field goal, or we landed on opposite sides of 3 or 7. That is a look, not an automatic bet.
- Skip is normal. Most games we do not bet.
This week’s $1,000
One unit is $50. A full play is 3 units. 1u parlays are for fun. Leftover stays unspent.
Preseason · no bets yet
Week 1 betting hasn’t started. The card is blank on purpose.
You can still open Teams and Games to see how we rate clubs. We will not invent scores. Real bets wait until the regular season.
How the week runs
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Mon
First look
Write down the sportsbook numbers. Don’t bet yet unless the gap is huge.
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Wed
Thursday game
Wait for the official injury report (4pm ET). Bet or skip.
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Fri
Sunday games
Same idea after Friday’s injury report. Skip is fine.
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Sun
Underdogs
Only if the public actually moved the number. Otherwise leave it.
Words a friend might not know
- Line
- The point handicap. Chiefs −3 means Kansas City must win by more than 3.
- Our line
- The gap we expect, from the home team’s view.
- Street
- What the sportsbook is offering right now.
- Edge
- How far those two numbers are apart.
- Skip
- We looked and did not bet. That counts as a decision.
- Unit
- $50. The week is 20 units ($1,000). 1u look, 2u standard, 3u full, 4u max.
- Straight
- One game, sized in units. This is what we grade.
- Parlay
- Several games at once, 1 unit. For fun, not the score.
- 3 and 7
- NFL games land on field goals and touchdowns a lot. A half-point around those numbers matters.
This week · skip is allowed
This week
Each time slot can hold one process straight (1–3 units) and one 1u parlay. An empty slot is unfinished. Skip is finished. Do not chase Sunday or Monday night after a bad afternoon.
0.0 is a league-average club · plus is better
Teams
Every club starts from last season, then we add roster changes, Week-1 starter rookies, Madden’s equal 22, and injuries. Tap a team to see the pile-up. Plus means better than average. The number on the card is not “they will win by this many.”
Serve the desk over http so the 2026 library can load (python3 -m http.server from this folder).
Coordinators · names and history · not a line
Staff
OC, DC, and special teams for all 32 clubs. Copper stars are Coach, OC, DC, or ST of the Year. More stars means more of those awards. Scheme only when a source named it. This does not move the number.
Our guess vs the sportsbook · copper is a look, not a ticket
Games
Tap a game. Our line is the gap we expect. Street is the sportsbook. Copper means we disagree enough to look.
Ratings are even
Every club is still 0. Open Teams, then come back — each game will grow a number.
Zero is average. Plus is better. Home teams get a couple of extra points for playing at home, except neutral sites. We show the number. We do not auto-bet.
After the games · we type the last number
After the games
Did our number beat the sportsbook’s last number? Wins and losses bounce around. The last number is the grade.
| week | game | our spread | mkt spread | spread edge | our total | mkt total | total edge | close spread | close total | result | res vs close | res vs result |
|---|
No 2026 regular-season games loaded.
Club rollup · we vs the street
Mean of (edge / 2) credited to home and the opposite to away. Close replaces market when you type it.
| club | n | mean credit |
|---|
Why a half-point matters
3 and 7
NFL games land on field goals (3) and touchdowns (7) a lot. If we sit on one side of that number and the sportsbook sits on the other, the half-point is the whole bet.
What people are talking about · not a bet
Buzz
A nightly scan of what is loud around each club. Stories only. Quiet rooms stay blank. This is not a reason to bet.
When we look at each game
The week plan
A calendar for when a number is worth deciding. Old stories like “Thursday is always under” are labeled folklore. We do not run those.
- VERIFIED NFL clock or a desk rule we can audit
- MIXED industry timing + our filter
- FOLKLORE story, not a trigger
- DESK RULE how this book is run
What we run, what we ignore
Rules
COPY = we actually do this. ENTERTAINMENT = the $50 parlay, not the grade. ADAPT = keep the idea, change the mechanic. IGNORE = a story we do not bet on.
Bets we logged · one-game bets are the score
Bets
The grade is whether our one-game bets beat the sportsbook’s last number. Size them in units. Parlays stay visible and tagged as fun. Sample rows are examples and do not count.
| week | window | type | purpose | game | market | pick | line | juice | stake | book | close | CLV | result | profit | notes | grade |
|---|
No tickets in the book. Log a ticket, record a pass, or load SAMPLE data to see the ledger.